Poster Session 3, Wednesday, October 5, 16:00–18:00
Large Marine Ecosystems changes under future climate projections
Human-induced climate change produces significant global environmental effects on the Earth, including in crucial ocean productive areas. These marine ecosystems consist of coastal areas out to the seaward boundary of continental shelves and the outer margins of coastal currents. Around the world, there are 66 high-productive regions designated as Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which are classified by their bathymetry, hydrography, trophic relationships, and productivity, as they can produce ~80% of the annual world’s marine fisheries catch. Understanding how physical oceanographic (sea surface temperature, SST) and biological (chlorophyll concentration, CHL) conditions have changed, and will continue to change, is fundamental for socio-ecological and economic sustainability of marine ecosystems. To quantify past and predict future changes, we utilize remote sensing data for the periods 1985 to 2021 for SST and 1997 to 2021 for CHL. Furthermore, for 2022 to 2100, we use global climate models projections derived from over 25 models for three future socioeconomic scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585). The past and future SST and CHL were standardized and analyzed at monthly and 1°x1° resolution to be consistent with the future climate data. Our results show that while SST increases, CHL decreases globally, with some LMEs having complex SST vs. CHL relationships through to the end of the century.
Eric Treml, Deakin University, [email protected]